Dissecting the Data: Burma’s Macroeconomy at the Cusp of the 2010 ‘Elections’

By Sean Turnell • July 1, 2010

Burma’s macroeconomy is unbalanced, unstable and largely without the institutions and attributes necessary to achieve transformational growth. Employing new data and techniques selected to gaze through the characteristic informational fog, this paper aims to examine the fundamentals of Burma’s macroeconomy as it stands at the cusp of the 2010 elections. These elections, already without political credibility, promise little in the way of the reforms Burma needs to achieve economic stability and growth.

The argument briefly outlined here is organised below according to a sequence of concerns, beginning with a critique of Burma’s economic growth, followed by an examination of the country’s fiscal circumstances, monetary and financial policies, and international trade. Along the way various topical issues and concerns are explored, as well as more foundational matters.

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