29 December – 8 January: 2012: A Year for Cautious Optimism

January 9, 2012

At the end of 2011, looking back at some of the initial steps taken towards progress in the country, 2012 looked more promising with the hope that real progress and substantive change would be coming to Burma. Only one week into the New Year, to our surprise, disenchantment has already set in.

On 2 January, President Thein Sein signed a clemency order marking this week’s 64th anniversary of independence from British colonial rule. Under the order, death sentences were commuted to life imprisonment and prisoners serving more than 30 years had their sentences cut to 30 years. Those serving 20 to 30 years had their terms reduced to 20 years, while those with less than 20 years had their sentences cut by one-fourth. Under this clemency, 6,656 people who had already served the time of their reduced sentences were released. However, as reported by the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners – Burma (AAPP), at the end of the day on 3 January, only 34 political prisoners were freed. Those who have a critical role to play in the democratic transition and national reconciliation process will continue to remain behind bars for decades.

As the regime had promised that there would be a significant release of political prisoners on the occasion of Independence Day on January 4, widespread disappointment was expressed after the President’s order. The United States dismissed Thein Sein’s decision saying it fell short of the reform necessary to prompt Washington to further normalize ties. William Hague, on the first visit by a UK foreign secretary to Burma in 55 years, reiterated after the clemency that European Union economic sanctions will not change until authorities release all political prisoners. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi also expressed frustration about the clemency, stating after the Presidential order that “changes have not come about as quickly as we had hoped.”

In a long interview with the Associated Press, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi raised one of the main issues Burma is facing at the moment: the ongoing armed conflict in Kachin State. “The Kachin situation is important now because of the hostilities and the fate of the refugees and the local people,” she said. Daw Suu went on to say that resolving the long-running ethnic conflicts is likely the most important issue for the country, because “unless there is ethnic harmony, it will be very difficult for us to build up a strong democracy.”

In addition to the disappointingly small release of political prisoners, hopes for the New Year to bring peace to the country were also dashed. In early December, President Thein Sein ordered the army not to launch attacks on ethnic armed groups in northern Kachin State. However, fighting has continued and the Burma Army has been deploying more troops, with several boats carrying troops arriving in the Kachin State town of Bhamo in recent days.

Thein Sein has taken the role of the “reformer.” However, this week’s clemency and intensification of fighting in Kachin State show that he is not the real decision maker. At the end of the day, according to the 2008 Constitution, it is the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) that still holds the reins in Burma. The country’s chief and deputy chief of the Army play key roles in the NDSC and are known to be blocking any reforms and release of political prisoners.

As Daw Aung San Suu Kyi said this week, “I am concerned about how much support there is in the military for changes. In the end that’s the most important factor, how far the military are prepared to cooperate with reform principles.” No one should underestimate the important role that the Army still plays. Therefore, the international community should remain vigilant and keep on calling for real and concrete change.